The Small Business Ballot

With the presidential campaign in full swing, the candidates are setting their sights on voters who own their own businesses. But winning their support may prove to be a daunting task for Barack Obama and John McCain.

Rather than a colossal voting bloc, the small-business community covers a vast channel of characteristics and creeds. The Small Business Administration estimates there are 23 million small-business owners, while the National Federation of Independent Business, counting only those who operate their business as a primary income, estimates 16 million. Because they make up 15 percent of registered voters, by the federation’s calculation, any shift in their voting intentions could tip the balance in a close race for the White House.

Unfortunately, small-business lobbyists and landscape business owners (74 percent of which bring in $500,000 or less annually) are frustrated at the scarcity of details from the candidates on many small-business policies.

“We are watching the election closely to see what each party’s platform will include,” says Lee Helmberger, owner, Lee’s Lawn Service, Omaha, Neb. “Neither candidate has come straight out yet to give their opinion on environmental issues or small business.”

When it comes to what they think would be best for their businesses, 66.8 percent of respondents to Lawn & Landscape’s survey prefer a Republican-run administration wins the upcoming presidential election. As far as landscape customers are concerned, when asked which candidate will have the most positive influence on their pocketbooks, a majority 40 percent of people answering a CNNMoney.com poll chose McCain. But regular Gallup polls tracking voter preference change daily – on Sept. 25th they were tied with 46 percent each. By presstime, Obama had a seven-point lead.

“Typically, Democrats are not a friend to any size business, and I am truly concerned should Obama win the election that we could be faced with one of the most hostile business environments since the Jimmy Carter years,” shares Todd Reinhart of Reinhart Grounds Maintenance in Bloomington, Ill. “Combine that with the current status of the American economy and it could truly spell disaster.”
But some don’t want to discount the possible positive affect a change in administration could have on client spending. “An election of Obama may improve consumer confidence in the short term,” points out Bruce Bachand, vice president of Carol King Landscape Maintenance in Orlando, Fla.

Despite McCain’s clear lead in the landscape industry sector, it’s not that cut-and-dry. The final outcome will be based on each candidate’s stance on specific issues. The current top voter issue is the economy, with gas prices, Iraq and health care remaining important, a Gallup poll says, adding “a continuing uptick in consumer confidence, downward drift in gas prices and increase in perceived success in Iraq could benefit McCain.”

OUT OF POCKET. All three small-business association lobbies – the NFIB, NSBA and the National Association for the Self-Employed – agree the tax cuts initiated by President Bush should be made permanent, a position shared by McCain, who also plans to cut the top corporate tax rate to 25 percent from its current 35 percent. Obama plans to leave the rate as is and extend tax cuts for households earning less than $250,000.

“For the long haul, McCain would reduce taxes and try to stimulate economic recovery,” Bachand says.

HEALING THE SYSTEM. The NFIB says health care costs have increased 129 percent in the last eight years – the biggest reason why it’s the No. 1 issue of concern for its members. The NASE also found strong support for health care reform among its members.

Concerning a mandate requiring employers to cover their workers’ health insurance costs, all three small-business lobbies oppose it.

This is the one area where McCain seems to have an edge. While Obama hasn’t said he supports a mandate, he has said he plans to require all companies to offer health insurance or contribute to employee coverage. Under the plan, small businesses will not have to provide coverage; they will be offered a tax credit to encourage them to do so. But Obama hasn’t specified how small a company would have to be to qualify – a key stipulation that small-business owners and lobbyists are waiting for.

Another labor-related issue contractors are watching closely is immigration. While Obama and McCain support guest worker programs and a path to legalization for illegal immigrants that includes learning English and paying fines, Obama plans to toughen penalties for hiring illegal immigrants.

“I think both McCain and Obama are sympathetic to the industry’s needs and are in alignment with the industry’s position in respect to immigration issues,” says Todd Williams, vice president and regional director of Denver-based American Civil Constructors.

NO PLACE LIKE HOME. Both Obama and McCain envision the Federal Housing Administration providing new, cheaper mortgages to distressed homeowners.

Obama wants to create a $10 billion fund to counsel homeowners before they slide into foreclosure; help people sell homes they bought but could not afford; and ensure loans can be modified in a timely manner to avoid foreclosure or bankruptcy.
If the next president can make people more optimistic, “the slow rebuilding of confidence will help to increase home values,” contends Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University.

CREDIT CRISIS. In a recent New York Times article, George Cloutier, chief executive of American Management Services, a Florida consulting firm for small businesses, says the biggest small-business concern is banks’ stinginess with credit. In fact, 72 percent of respondents to a recent Discover Small Business Watch survey said borrowing money has become harder.

The NFIB is relieved Congress voted yes to the $700 billion big business bailout plan because its members feel it will improve the credit situation. As NFIB’s Tony Gagliardi says, “Sometimes, businesses have to access a line of credit to meet payroll – having that line of credit available is very important.”

Mike Biskup, president of Greenkeepers Lawn Service & Landscaping in Medina, Ohio, agrees, saying: “It seems that whenever a president is for the working man then the economy is better off.”  SOI