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Editor's Note: This article originally appeared in the January 2026 print edition of Lawn & Landscape under the headline “Beyond the noise in 2026.”
If a headline reads: “New home sales down 3%,” it sounds definitive. It isn’t. Dig even a little deeper, and a different picture emerges. In many markets, starter and lower-priced homes are indeed struggling. Interest-sensitive, price-sensitive buyers are on the sidelines. Some builders are laying off staff and slashing budgets, including landscape allowances.
But in those same metro areas, mid- to high-end homes are selling before completion. These buyers are less rate-sensitive, more focused on lifestyle and long-term positioning. If your firm’s core is high-end residential, amenity spaces or master-planned communities, the national “down 3%” story may have very little to do with your real opportunity set.
If you forget that base effect and build your 2026 strategy on a simplistic narrative of “we’re down from last year,” you risk cutting muscle instead of fat or missing the moment to invest in the right segments.
Mixed Signals Are a Clue, Not a Curse
Talk to five strong design-build companies around the U.S., and you’ll often hear a split-screen story. Two firms report delayed contracts and painfully slow decision-making. Three report the opposite: a major uptick in Q4 activity, fast-moving clients and healthier 2026 pipelines than they expected.
The macro environment is the same. What differs is client mix, local economics and positioning. Firms with clients tied to distressed asset classes or speculative development feel more drag. Firms embedded with well-capitalized owners, high-end residential markets or mission-critical facilities are seeing momentum.
The right conclusion is not, “the market is up,” or “the market is down.” The right conclusion is that there is no single market. There are many overlapping micro-markets, and your results will depend on which ones you’re in and how you show up in them.
Stop Guessing: Go on a Strategic Listening Tour
In this environment, spreadsheets and newsfeeds aren’t enough. As you frame 2026, your most valuable insight will come from deliberate, structured conversations with both clients and your internal team.
With key clients, your goal is to surface forward-looking realities, not just confirm this year’s budget. You want to understand how they’re thinking about 2026 spending compared to the last two years along with which capital projects are truly critical and which can be deferred.
What pressures they’re facing from stakeholders
Consider the asset manager overseeing a portfolio of office buildings who tells you, “We’re projecting a 20% reduction in occupancy in 2026.” That single data point should materially change your posture. A 20% drop in occupancy guarantees a tightening of maintenance and enhancement budgets. It invites tougher scrutiny on every non-essential dollar.
Your job isn’t to argue with that reality; it is to reframe your value within it.
Inside your own company, you should be asking branch managers, account managers and sales leaders what they’re hearing: Which segments are leaning in and approving enhancements? Where are proposals stalling and why? Which clients are signaling growth, contraction or asset sales?
You’re not collecting stories; you’re building an internal, ground-truth market map that's far more relevant than any national average.
Turning Insight into a 2026 Playbook
Once you’ve separated signal from noise, three disciplines will matter most as you set your 2026 course.
First, segment your book with ruthless clarity. Break your portfolio down by property type, client type and revenue mix. Treat high-conviction segments differently from those genuinely under pressure.
Second, elevate your leading indicators. Proposal volume, win rates by segment and backlog duration will tell you far more about your trajectory than last quarter’s P&L.
Third, double down on relationship capital while others retreat. In anxious markets, many vendors go quiet or purely transactional. The firms that emerge stronger are those that sit beside their clients at the planning table, help them think strategically about their sites and tailor landscape solutions to support leasing, sales, ESG and brand objectives — not just “keep the grass cut.”
The dominant story going into 2026 will be one of caution: choppy real estate, uneven demand, headline risk. You can’t ignore those forces, but you also cannot allow them to dictate your decisions.
Explore the January 2026 Issue
Check out more from this issue and find your next story to read.
