John Ossa: Predictions for 2011

Predictions for 2011 will focus on the economy … and the operative word is uncertainty.  Marginal signs of increased consumer spending will not be enough to get more banks interested in lending to small business. I am an optimist by nature, but realistically for 2011, and especially in California, I just don’t see what is going to generate confidence and drive the economy forward.

For commercial contractors, the market will remain very slow. For contractors that focus on the residential market, there are small pockets of activity, particularly in the high-end market. These jobs will be aggressively contested as contractors that don’t normally focus on this market jump in and try to survive in this bleak economy.

The predictable results are lower margins for all. The public works sector can’t be counted on as budgets are awash in red ink.

Midterm elections historically offer a “bounce” that can be positive. The most notable claim being made by many incoming political hopefuls is that they are “not career politicians.” This is construed as a good thing, but, in the real world, experience still matters. The federal stimulus money will slow, and the weak results to date will trickle off.

What are things and activities that we will see in 2011 in response to this gloomy economic outlook? The products and activities will be at the intersection of cost-effective, environmentally conscious solutions.

• Manufacturers will create products that are more efficient and more environmentally friendly.
• Manufacturers will create products with features that make the products smarter – any feature that makes a product more capable, and at the same time simple, streamlined and readily understood. These products will help contractors deliver more knowledge-based solutions to the many areas of the country that have an increasingly complex regulatory environment.
• Contractors will seek products with features that enable faster or easier installation. These products will help them make money.
• Small business owners will need to become adept at a wider range of business skills. Gone are the days of simply focusing on day-to-day operations and relying on past success to guarantee tomorrow.
• Owners must understand where new opportunities are that may be adjacent to their existing core competencies.This could mean reconfiguring your service(s) or expanding into new market niches. We live in a time of heightened focus on property value, climate change and the availability of water for use on landscapes. These conditions offer their own opportunities.