Forecasting 2010

© Hixnhix | Dreamstime.comJohn Polito, owner, Greener Image, Garland, Texas, found a bright side to the foreclosure mess in his area. Once grass on a vacated property exceeds 6 inches in height, a violation of city code, Polito is hired by the City of Garland to mow it down.

“When you see foreclosure increases, the houses sit empty and a lot of business comes (my way),” Polito says.
His business is 35 percent commercial this year, much of it city work, but he plans to expand this sector by reaching out to small medical centers, independent doctors’ offices and similar businesses. “These jobs can be scheduled easily into our schedule,” he explains.

Besides, Polito’s residential clients have stopped buying add-ons like shrub care and planting. “They want the basics, and in Texas, that’s get the yard mowed,” he says. “In 110-degree weather, they don’t want to mow.”
 Polito, who has 35 employees, says sales are up 8 percent in 2009, and profit has increased by 55 percent. “That’s because of gas prices,” he says, comparing his budget to 2008. City work is also a reason for his profit increase.

Creative business moves like Polito’s are necessary in a competitive, tough economy. “We have to quantify and measure key (benchmarks), but on the other hand, we have to be extremely creative,” says Jim Huston, president, J.R. Huston Enterprises, Englewood, Colo. “We can’t allow tradition or how we used to do things prevail.”

Huston has been trying to predict what will happen in 2010 for the past few months. It’s nearly impossible. “The fact is, we just don’t have any idea what will happen in 2010 at this point,” he says. “I’m thinking, hopefully, at worst it’s a repeat of 2009.”

Huston sees positive signs out there, but he says so far, sales for 2010 “are really soft.” Huston wouldn’t be surprised if a double-dip recession occurred. “We start coming out of this thing in mid-2010, and then the debt load we’ve incurred hits, and the real wild card right now is healthcare,” he says.

But, as Huston notes, entrepreneurs generally have a glass-half-full view of business – they can make it, they will make it. Failure isn’t an option.

The economy has forced all businesses at every level to get back into fiscal shape, and that’s not a bad thing. “It’s been an eye-opener for a lot of people,” says Judith Guido, president, Guido & Associates, Moorpark, Calif.
So the question is, are headlines the real deal or just a lot of bunk?

Landscapers we interviewed were more focused on how to maintain or grow in their individual markets, really honing in on what’s going on at home. Chris Eckl, president, Earthtones, Atlanta, is matching 2010’s budget to 2009 numbers. He expects this year’s sales to dip 12 to 15 percent lower than sales in 2008. Weather can be more of a factor than economics in his region, but still, his enhancement sales are lower than they’ve ever been.

Aaron Jung, Horticultural Impressions in Platte City, Mo., says his market is less affected than other states, but he notices more phasing of design/build projects this year. But people are still spending. “Because they are staying home,” Jung explains. “Not as many people go on vacation. They realizing that their homes are still a sound investment.”

Ted Bentz, president, Second Nature, Rapid City, S.D., says gauging 2010 is difficult because a lot of 2010 projects have not been signed. “A lot are a bid-only type basis,” he says. Bentz anticipates growth. “There’s still a rather significant amount of commercial work being done,” he says, noting that businesses are under construction in his area.

John Crider, president, Fine Lines Lawn Care and Landscaping, Chattanooga, Tenn., says residential maintenance customers are helping his business maintain profits. “Right now, several of our commercial accounts are mainly about keeping the grass mowed at this point,” he says, also  noting a decrease in enhancements.

Regardless of the economy, going into 2010 with lean operations and a “new” attitude will position companies to succeed, Guido says. “Always look for new,” she says. “Look for new alliances, new technology, new people who are subject-matter experts, new products and services to offer. Look for new markets. The greatest advice is to embrace change because it will create a great competitive advantage.”

 The author is a freelance writer based in Bay Village, Ohio.