Ernesto Expected to Bring Torrential Rains to Florida Keys

The Florida Keys braced for storm tides and torrential rains as Tropical Storm Ernesto approached. The center of the storm was expected to cross over the chain of islands south of mainland Florida by this evening.

Squalls of wind and rain are expected to start pelting the Keys and the Miami-Dade County area this afternoon, well in advance of the storm’s center. Rain is expected to fall through the night into Wednesday morning, according to forecasters. Isolated tornadoes associated with the storm are possible over southern Florida and the Keys throughout the evening and overnight, they said.

Although the storm’s maximum sustained winds are only about 45 miles an hour now, they are expected to intensify as the storm moves north over the warm water of the Florida Strait.

“It is possible that Ernesto could be near hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the middle and upper Keys,” the National Weather Service said in its latest forecast bulletin. That would mean sustained winds greater than 74 miles an hour.

Storm tides of up to three feet above normal were predicted for the low-lying islands, and they are expected to receive five to ten inches of rain. A flood watch was in effect for the entire Keys area.

A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch was posted for most of mainland Florida. The weather service said a hurricane warning, rather than just a watch, may be issued for the southern part of the state and the Keys later today.

The center of the storm was located about 170 miles east-southeast of Key West late this morning, after passing over eastern Cuba overnight. It was headed northwest at about 15 miles an hour, and was expected to keep moving on that track for the next 24 hours, the weather service said.

Tropical-storm conditions and the associated hazards are expected over much of the southern part of Florida for most of the day Wednesday and into Wednesday evening. Flooding is expected in the heavily populated Miami-Dade County area, with storm tides of three to five feet above normal along the Biscayne Bay shore.

With the storm bearing down on Florida, Amtrak announced that its Silver Star and Silver Meteor trains leaving New York today will terminate in Orlando, rather than continuing to Miami as usual. Northbound trains leaving Miami today will operate as usual, the railroad said, but on Wednesday, the two daily northbound trains will start their journeys in Orlando instead.