Retail gas prices pushed past a record high $3.40 a gallon last week, fulfilling expectations that they'll keep climbing toward $4 as the summer driving season approaches.
Oil prices, meanwhile, fell slightly after setting yet another record high overnight. Analysts said investors were locking in gains from crude's ongoing rally.
At the pump, the average national price of a gallon of unleaded gas rose 1.9 cents overnight to $3.418 a gallon, according to a survey of stations by AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Diesel fuel also hit a new record of $4.146 a gallon after jumping 1.7 cents overnight, the survey said.
Pinch at the pump. The soaring cost of both fuels is pressuring consumers, who gas up their cars and buy goods that grow more expensive because of rising transportation costs. And their plight will only worsen; many analysts expect average national gas prices to peak close to $4 a gallon later in the spring. Prices are already that high in some parts of the country, including California.
With gas reaching another milestone, analysts are questioning whether consumers, who have already curtailed their driving over the past month, will cut back further in response to rising prices. They point to the trends seen last year in California; when prices soared past $3.40 a gallon in the state last November, demand plummeted by 3.7 percent.
Higher summer demand. Some analysts see California's experience as a sign that a plunge in national demand could also occur. Still, when summer arrives, demand will rise regardless of how high prices have soared.
"July and August will be very busy," said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. "If you've got a vacation planned to Disney World or something, you're still going to take the vacation."
This expectation of higher summer demand is boosting gas prices now, but prices are also rising because refiners are switching over from winter grade gasoline to the more expensive but less polluting fuel they're required to sell in the summer. That has pulled supplies lower lately as refiners try to sell off all of their winter fuel. Short supplies of key blending components needed for summer gasoline are exacerbating the problem.
Supply of light sweet crude falls, demand rises. Oil, meanwhile, has spiked higher on concerns about falling supplies and rising global demand, and as a weaker dollar has attracted speculative investors to crude futures. Crude rose to a new trading record of $115.54 overnight as the dollar fell to a new low against the euro, but later pulled back when the dollar strengthened.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell 7 cents from Wednesday's close to settle at $114.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the contract's first lower close in a week.
Commodities such as oil are seen by many investors as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar. A falling dollar also makes oil cheaper to overseas investors. The effect tends to reverse when the U.S. currency strengthens.
Crude prices jumped more than 4 percent last week due in part to the falling dollar, but also because of supply and demand concerns in the United States and abroad. Domestic gasoline and crude supplies fell last week. Meanwhile, Russian oil production dropped this year for the first time in a decade, according to an International Energy Agency report. China's economy continues to grow at a breakneck pace, demanding more oil and fuel. And the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at least twice more this year, which will further weaken the dollar.
The combination of all these factors will push oil prices even higher in coming weeks, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Fla., trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.
"I think we're going at least to $125," he said. "That'll probably translate to about $3.80 [a gallon] at the pump."