A financial crystal ball

While some believe who holds the office of president of the United States plays a major role in how the economy performs, Alan Beaulieu is not one of them. Beaulieu, president of ITR Economics, was the keynote speaker during Dealer Day and GIE+EXPO, and said what drives the economy are the business behind it, not whether a democrat or republican is in office.

“It’s about what you do, not what they do,” he said.

Here are a few points from Beaulieu’s speech.

• Immigrants coming in legally does help the economy. We need immigration because there is a below-average rate of fertility.
• America’s gross domestic product (GDP) has changed very little over time and is very dependable, and currently the slope is up. “It’s time to invest in your business,” Beaulieu said. The average rate of growth GDP for 30 years should be at 2.4 percent, he said, adding that a some people think it should be 4.4 percent. Beaulieu said that is an old number based on when the United States was a $2-trillion economy, while today it’s an $18-trillion economy.
• Forecasts show a soft economy is coming up, which doesn’t bode well for another term for President Donald Trump. Presidents are usually not reelected in a soft economy, he says.
• The Lawn & Garden Equipment Production Index will keep going up in 2018, and peak in late 2018 but go down in 2019. Growth is currently at 11.2 percent.