If farmers and grass seed brokers are right, then 2004 will not be a year best remembered for its yields. But, weather permitting, it may shape up to be a good year for seed prices.
With some exceptions, prices have rebounded to levels where farmers can expect to reap a profit.
Steve Tubbs, president of Turf Merchants Inc. in Tangent, is bullish on the seed market's prospects.
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"Everything looks better than it has for a long time," Tubbs said. "We've finally had a reduction in acres we need, and we're finally out of some of the burdens from carryovers."
Carryover - industry-speak for surplus seed - has pushed prices down in recent years, Tubbs said. In some seed categories, prices were so low that farmers and merchants couldn't break even, so surplus seed was warehoused, awaiting a rise in price.
Claus Sass, president of Albany seed brokerage DLF-Trifolium, said prices in most categories of grass seed have rebounded.
"This year should be a good year for farmers in the Willamette Valley. There should be acceptable yield and good prices," Sass said. "The availability of perennial ryegrass and annual ryegrass is short presently. So at least at the beginning of the year, it should hold good prices."
Per-pound perennial ryegrass prices are now in the 60-cent range vs. 40 cents two years ago. Prices for annual ryegrass have broken out of the 13- to 18-cent range and now hover around 21 cents per pound. That's above the break-even price for most farmers.
Tall fescue prices remain relatively low, in the 35- to 45-cent range, depending on whether it's destined for lawns or forage. That's in part due to carryover, Sass said.
"There's too much tall fescue around. I don't expect to see it change a lot this year," he said. "In terms of carryover, it's beginning to feel like we can develop markets without having to worry that there's 10 million pounds sitting in someone's warehouse."
Tubbs said market demand for grass seed, used for lawns, golf courses and livestock feed, has been strong, which should keep prices high if harvests are average this year.
"The price will never be high enough to satisfy most farmers, but there should be enough seed to keep the channels going and the price strong - but not enough seed to lower prices," he said.
An average or even below-average harvest would also help to shrink the supply available next year. Even if demand remains constant, tighter supply, the economic rule goes, should force prices to rise.
Dave Chambers of Keizer has 500 acres of tall fescue and perennial ryegrass on his farm. Chambers said he hopes a market that's short on seed will help buoy prices for tall fescue as well as his other crops.
"It looks like a strong market for annual and perennial ryegrass, but tall fescue's a different story. Prices are still really low on it. But there's hope that a shortage in other types of grasses may help pull it up a little bit," Chambers said.
He added that he'll likely harvest earlier this year, in part because the recent warm weather is forcing the crop to seed early. He's just hoping the weather holds.
"I'm hopeful that it can be a good yield this year," Chambers said. "We just need to make sure it doesn't rain starting about July Fourth. That could be a catastrophe."
Brian Glaser of Ernest Glaser Farms in Shedd said he's finding reasons for optimism in the markets if not in the fields.
"I'm a little concerned about the weather. We've had some rain, and that makes us feel a little better, but we've also lost our (subsoil) moisture, and I don't know how that will play out yet," Glaser said.
Glaser's other concerns include higher fuel prices, which affect his bottom line in several ways. Not only is he paying more for diesel fuel to run his farm equipment, but rising petroleum costs also push up the price of making and transporting fertilizer and chemicals.
Glaser has 2,500 acres under way with a mix of grass seed species, including tall fescue, annual ryegrass and golf ryegrass, another annual.
"At best, it's looking like we'll have an average crop, not a bumper crop," Glaser said. "But if we keep the consumption we've had over the last few years on annual and perennial ryegrass, then the market will be in a short situation come spring. That should keep some strength in our markets, and, hopefully, we'll see an upside."