WASHINGTON - A key gauge of the number of Americans losing their jobs fell to its lowest level in six months, a sign that the country may be pulling out of a recession.
The average number of newly laid off workers over the last four weeks sank to a seasonally adjusted 376,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday, Feb. 14.
Because the department's four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out week-to-week fluctuations, economists consider it a good barometer of labor market activity.
The latest jobless figures — along with other recent economic data — "say that the economy has turned a corner and is recovering. The only issue is the strength of that recovery," said economist Clifford Waldman of Waldman Associates.
Still, economists warned that the country is in for a period of rising unemployment. Even if companies reduce the speed at which they lay off employees, the jobless rate will keep rising if companies are reluctant to hire workers back.
Last week's decline pushed the moving average of new claims down to its lowest level since Aug. 11, when claims stood at 372,000.
Some economists predict the jobless rate will peak at anywhere from 6 percent to 6.5 percent by midyear and hold steady for awhile but won't begin falling until near year's end or the beginning of 2003.
"I actually think businesses will start hiring some part-timers back fairly soon before employing full-time workers," said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo. "Companies will want to be sure that the economic recovery is here to stay."
The author is Associated Press writer Jeannine Aversa.