Manpower Survey Show Steady Hiring Plans for U.S. Employers

MILWAUKEE – The hiring pace for fourth quarter of 2004 is expected to remain consistent with the past two quarters, but much improved from a year ago across the United States, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc. 

Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were surveyed, 28 percent plan to add staff in the fourth quarter, while 7 percent expect to reduce their payrolls, creating a net employment outlook of 21 percent.  Sixty percent of employers surveyed anticipate no change in staff levels for the coming quarter, and 5 percent are unsure of their hiring plans.  The seasonally adjusted employment outlook for the final months of 2004 is the same as it was in both the second and third quarters.  The job forecast has remained at a respectable level for three quarters, and it is decidedly more positive than a year ago when the outlook was half as strong.   

 “U.S. employers have predicted solid employment activity for the past six months, and they expect to sustain that level of hiring through the end of the year,” says Jeffrey Joerres, Manpower’s chairman and chief executive officer.  “Hiring plans remain the most upbeat they have been since the hiring boom of the late 1990s that continued into the new millennium.  The survey’s history reveals only two other stretches when employers planned to hire at a healthier pace than in the current survey:  the late 1970s and the middle months of 1984.”

Employers in seven of the 10 industry sectors surveyed plan to keep hiring activity levels relatively consistent with the July to September period.  These sectors include non-durable goods manufacturing, transportation/public utilities, wholesale/retail trade, finance/insurance/real estate, services, public administration and mining.  Durable goods manufacturers are slightly more confident about hiring than they were in the third quarter, while job prospects in construction and education are expected to soften slightly.

“Optimism among durable and non-durable goods manufacturers has been mounting throughout 2004,” Joerres says. “The manufacturing sectors, along with wholesale/retail trade, are the bright spots in the fourth quarter survey.  These employers are more confident about hiring than those in the other sectors.”

Employers in each of the U.S. regions, including the Midwest, Northeast, West and South, report employment plans consistent with the previous quarter.  Job seekers in all four regions can expect to have a much easier time with their search than a year ago.  The employment outlook is most positive in the West and weakest in the Northeast, marking the third consecutive quarter that Northeastern hiring levels have lagged other regions.        

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 19 countries and territories:  The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962. Manpower specializes in permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment; training; career transition and organizational consulting services.  The focus of Manpower’s work is on raising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their core business activities.  In addition to the Manpower brand, the company operates under the brand names of Right Management Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan and Brook Street.