Mild Winter Predicted For Most of the U.S.

Despite earlier-than-normal snowfall predicted for some parts of the United States tomorrow, it wasn’t the long-term forecast for Winter 2006-07 snow contractors had hoped to hear. 

Most of the United States will experience winter temperatures above normal though slightly cooler than last year's very warm winter, according to the winter weather outlook announced today by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.

The majority of U.S. snow and ice removal contractors were banking on Winter 2006/2007 to be their rebound season after last winter’s disappointing warm weather. Nearly 94 percent of snow contractors reported Winter 2005/2006 was unseasonably warmer than normal for their geographic region, according to GIE Media’s Snow Magazine’s annual State of the Industry report.

In fact, the average temperature in the U.S. between December 2005 and February 2006 was 26.3 degrees, making it the fifth warmest winter on record, according to the NOAA.

Snow removal contractors directly felt this infrequency in snow and ice events. During an average winter, snow contractors say they work an average of 15 snow and/or ice events. However, during Winter 2005/2006, that number dropped to 10 events, according to Snow Magazine research. In addition, snow contractors reported a typical winter produces an average of 46.4 inches of snow. Last winter, though, contractors say they pushed only a little more than 30.5 inches of snow.

So what accounts for this warm winter prediction?

Weak El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to persist through the winter, possibly strengthening during the next few months to an event of moderate strength. However, this event is not expected to reach the magnitude of the very strong 1997-1998 El Niño event.

"The strengthening El Niño event will influence the position and strength of the jet stream over the Pacific Ocean, which in turn will affect winter precipitation and temperature patterns across the country," says Michael Halpert, lead forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "This event is likely to result in fewer cold air outbreaks in the country than would be expected to occur in a typical non-El Niño winter."

The winter outlook reflects a blend of factors associated with weak to moderate strength El Niño events across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with longer-term trends.

From December through February, the lower 48 states can expect about two percent fewer heating degree days than average but about five to 10 percent more heating degree days than last year's very warm winter. A heating degree day is used as an indication of fuel consumption. One heating degree day is given for each degree that the daily mean temperature is below 65 degrees.

Seasonal forecasters also expect warmer than average temperatures across the West, the Southwest, the Plains states, the Midwest, most of the Northeast, and the northern mid-Atlantic, as well as most of Alaska. Near-average temperatures are expected for parts of the Southeast, while below-average temperatures are anticipated for Hawaii. Maine, the southern mid-Atlantic, the Tennessee Valley, and much of Texas have equal chances of warmer, cooler and near-normal temperatures this winter.

The outlook for winter precipitation calls for wetter than average conditions across the Southwest from Southern California to Texas and for Florida and the south Atlantic Coast. Drier than average conditions are expected in the Tennessee Valley, the northern Rockies, the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii. Other regions have equal chances of drier, wetter or near normal precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the West is expected to improve drought conditions across Arizona and Texas, but result in drought across parts of Idaho, Washington and Oregon.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center will update the U.S. Winter Weather Outlook on October 19 and again on November 16, 2006.