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The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced recently that the active hurricane cycle that began 10 years ago is likely to continue for years to come. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends today, was the busiest on record and continues a trend of increasingly active hurricane seasons that began in 1995. The season included 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes of which seven were considered major (Category 3 or higher).
"This hurricane season shattered records that have stood for decades: the most named storms, most hurricanes, and most category five storms,” noted retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator and undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere. “Arguably, it was the most devastating hurricane season the country has experienced in modern times. I'd like to foretell that next year will be calmer, but I can't. Historical trends say the atmosphere patterns and water temperatures are likely to force another active season upon us."
NOAA explains that the Atlantic Basin is in the active phase of a multi-decadal cycle that’s providing a “perfect storm” of conditions to generate wicked weather. Conditions such as warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear have been key in enhancing hurricane activity. This resulting increase in the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes can span multiple decades (approximately 20 to 30 years). NOAA will make its official 2006 season forecast in May, prior to the June 1 start to the season.
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"Evidence of this active cycle was demonstrated this year as the Atlantic Basin produced the equivalent of more than two entire hurricane seasons over the course of one,” said retired Air Force Brig. Gen. David Johnson, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Because we are in an active hurricane era, it's important to recognize that with a greater number of hurricanes comes increasing odds of one striking land."
Floridians and other individuals living and working in the U.S. Gulf Coast are all too familiar with the hurricane activity that took place this year. Hurricanes Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma are just a few of the big names that cost the nation and the green industry billions of dollars in damage. The Florida Nursery, Growers & Landscape Association estimates that Hurricane Katrina alone cost the nursery industry just in Miami-Dade County, Fla., $370 million.
While NOAA scientists warned of an extremely active hurricane season, the results beat their predictions. The 26 named storms this season topped the forecast range of 18 to 21. Additionally, 13 storms that reached hurricane status topped the predicted nine to 11. NOAA predicted that five to seven hurricanes would reach Category 3 status or higher, and seven did. Five hurricanes (Dennis, Katrina, Ophelia, Rita and Wilma) and three tropical storms (Arlene, Cindy and Tammy) directly impacted the U.S.
Letters of the Greek alphabet were used to name storms for the first time since storms began acquiring names in 1953, as Hurricane Wilma exhausted the original list of 21 names. Tropical Storm Alpha and Hurricane Beta hit the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua, respectively. Tropical Storm Gamma brought deadly flooding to parts of Central America. Tropical Storm Delta largely stayed over open water then moved across the Canary Islands off the northwest coast of Africa.
With six months until the official start of the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA urges residents of hurricane-prone areas to take proactive measures during this time. "The battle against the hurricane season is won during the off season. Winter and spring is the time to conduct hurricane preparations, such as stocking supplies, assembling a safety kit that includes a NOAA Weather Radio and preparing an evacuation plan," said Max Mayfield, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center.
"Amid this period of more numerous and more intense hurricanes, NOAA is focused on our mission of serving society's needs for weather information and support the nation's commerce," said Lautenbacher. "NOAA is there to provide accurate storm forecasts and also stays engaged after the storm to ensure safe commercial fishing and continued navigation of our nation's impacted waterways."
NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA's National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy.