Oh, no - El Nino....

In this month's El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA scientists report that a climate phenomenon called the Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) contributed to an increase in ocean surface temperatures
late last month. Ocean surface temperatures of 1 degree C (2 degrees F)
above average were observed throughout most of the equatorial Pacific at the
end of May. This increase in ocean temperature, combined with observations
of abnormally heavy rainfall in parts of South America, and the lack of it
over Indonesia suggests that El Niño continues to develop as was originally
forecast.

"The MJO is an important factor contributing to the evolution of El Niño,
because it can influence the winds near the earth's surface. In late May,
the MJO contributed to a weakening of the normal east-to-west flow
throughout the equatorial Pacific, which has led to an increase in ocean
surface temperatures," said Vernon Kousky, meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"With last month's MJO activity, we saw signs of the further developing El
Niño, but it is not unusual to see a cycle during which conditions
intensify, wane, then intensify again," he said. "The overall trend, though,
together with changes in weather and pressure patterns in key regions of the
tropics that are characteristic of El Niño, suggest that further development
towards a weak-to-moderate El Niño will continue during the remainder of
2002."

El Niño does not significantly impact the U.S. during summer. Although it
does historically tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. NOAA
forecasters indicate that El Niño likely will not be strong enough to affect
hurricane activity this year, especially early in the season. If El Niño
continues to develop as expected, there is a possibility that fewer
hurricanes than normal may form in the Atlantic during August to October,
the peak of Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA will update the 2002 Atlantic
hurricane season outlook in early August.

NOAA will continue to monitor the evolution of El Niño and provide monthly
updates. NOAA scientists assert the actual global impacts of the forecasted
weak or moderate El Niño should be considerably weaker than those
experienced during the very strong 1997-98 El Niño.

This article appears in the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America NewsWeekly publication.