Alexandria, Va.— The Outdoor Power Equipment Institute's (OPEI) econometric forecast for consumer equipment and certain commercial turf products indicates that there is positive economic news for the industry in spite of recent negative stories found in the business press. In fact, while some negatives and risks may slow economic growth, offsetting positives will provide a boost to the economy over the next 18 months.
The following report focuses on non-handheld products. However, in the interest of serving all elements of the industry, the association has established a task group of members to begin developing an econometric forecasting model for the handheld segment of the industry.
For all riding units (rear engine, front engine and garden tractors) Model Year 2002 started slow but ended on a high note with a 4.5 percent increase over MY 2001. And shipments of walk-behind rotary mowers ended MY 2002 with a 3.9 percent increase. This growth was due largely to a strong spring from March through May. Commercial riders rose 2.1 percent for MY 2002. However, commercial intermediate walk behinds tumbled by 12.9 percent in MY 2002.
The picture for MY 2003 is for positive but measured improvements. OPEI is forecasting shipments of growth in all categories for MY 2003: a 3.1 percent increase in all consumer riding units; 2.1 percent increase for walk-behind rotary mowers; a 10.9 percent increase for walk-behind rotary tillers; a 2.6 percent increase for commercial walk behinds; and a 4.3 percent increase for commercial turf riders.
Good economic news for the industry this year has resulted from the president's tax cut, federal outlays for homeland security and defense, and the lowest mortgage rates in 30 years. And although high profile bad news has occurred such as corporate corruption, bankruptcies and concerns over a possible war with Iraq, another economic contraction producing a “double dip” recession is not anticipated.
The Outdoor Power Equipment Institute (OPEI) is the major international trade association representing the manufacturers and their suppliers of consumer and commercial outdoor power equipment such as lawnmowers, garden tractors, utility vehicles, trimmers, edgers, chain saws, snow throwers, tillers, leaf blowers and other related products.