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ALEXANDRIA, Va. - The Outdoor Power Equipment Institute (OPEI) economic forecast for commercial turf products and consumer equipment shows an overall decline in shipments for the 2001 model year. Apparently the landscape contracting industry isn’t immune to a slowing economy as the commercial walk-behind market is forecast to be hit with a sharp drop in shipments, while the commercial riding market is expected to see its shipments increase slightly, but at nowhere near the increase it experienced for the 2000 model year.
For OPEI’s shipment forecast, a model year runs from September of one year to August of the following year. For instance, the 2001 model year includes units manufactured from September 2000 to August 2001.
INTERMEDIATE WALK-BEHIND MOWERS. In the forecast, revised in April 2001, OPEI said that commercial intermediate walk-behind mower shipments are forecast to drop 11.1 percent from 2000 - the drop brings total units to be shipped down to 42,776 compared with 48,122 shipped in 2000. This figure is a large drop compared to the previous year’s drop of 3.7 percent from 1999 model shipments, which were at 49,947. Looking ahead, commercial walk-behinds are expected to rebound by 6.7 percent in 2002 over the anticipated 2001 total.
Ken Taylor, corporate business development manager, Husqvarna, Charlotte, N.C., said intermediate walk-behind mowers have always been a steady product both shipment- and sales-wise. The OPEI shipment data from the past seven years verifies this, showing periodic dips and recoveries in shipment totals. "It’s a mature business," he explained, which means the business segment will be viable for years to come. He said most landscape contractors will make room for these units because of their usefulness on maintenance sites.
John Cloutier, marketing communications manager, Exmark Mfg. Co., Beatrice, Neb., also sees a continuing need for walk-behinds. "Walk-behinds are always going to be viable," he said. "In a lot of cases, landscape contractors would prefer a walk-behind with a sulky on the back or a stand-up unit."
Even with the drop in shipments for 2001 walk-behind models, Cloutier isn’t worried about the downward trend in the market since 1998. "I don’t think any of us as manufacturers are all that concerned with those types of things, especially with intermediates because that’s a product that has been out for a lot of years," he said.
"Some people are saying the intermediate walk-behind business will go away and give way to the commercial riding mowers," noted Taylor. However, referring to OPEI’s fairly steady historical data on shipments for walk-behinds, he said, "I don’t think so. The market doesn’t go away."
| Unit Shipments Model Year Basis (Sept. to Aug.) | |||||||||
| Actual | Forecast | ||||||||
| 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | |
| Commercial Intermediate Walkers | 48,339 | 50,883 | 53,321 | 48,300 | 49,700 | 49,947 | 48,122 | 42,776 | 45,660 |
| Percent Change | 5.3 % | 4.8 % | -9.4 % | 2.9 % | 0.5 % | -3.7 % | -11.1 % | 6.7 % | |
| Commercial Riding Mowers | 45,820 | 45,923 | 50,178 | 52,400 | 65,100 | 87,921 | 109,406 | 114,133 | 107,623 |
| Percent Change | 0.2 % | 9.3 % | 4.4 % | 24.2 % | 35.1 % | 24.4 % | 4.3 % | -5.7 % | |
COMMERCIAL RIDING MOWERS. "Mid-mounts have somewhat replaced a lot of walk-behinds for some landscape crews," said Cloutier.
Couple that equipment trade-off with recent innovative technologies in mid-mount riding mowers and you have the reason for the commercial riding mower market’s steady and impressive growth for the past three model years. The 1998 model year shipments increased 24.2 percent over 1997, 1999 model year shipments increased 35.1 percent over 1998, and 2000 model shipments increased 24.4 percent over 1999. However, 2001 model shipments are only expected to increase 4.3 percent over 2000 with 114,113 units estimated to be shipped - a large drop percentage-wise, but an increase nonetheless. "Since 1998, you’re almost doubling the number," noted Taylor. "That’s pretty substantial growth against any other category in the outdoor power equipment industry."
According to Cloutier, the introduction of mid-mount mowers was definitely a factor in the commercial riding mower category’s rapid growth since 1997. Mid-mount popularity also brought several new manufacturers into the market. "I think you’re seeing a maturation of the market at this point. There are roughly 30 companies making mid-mount zero-turn radius mowers today, and that’s a tremendous amount of product to get out to the world," explained Cloutier.
The increase in manufacturers producing mid-mount units has filled the pipeline and saturated the market. "That in itself is going to show a pretty dramatic decline of shipments," noted Cloutier.
"With commercial riding mowers, we’re saying we really think the market is giving us a little blurp - that it’s not a function of overcapacity," explained Taylor. "It’s a function of higher productivity and different products."
Commercial riding mower shipments are forecast drop an estimated 5.7 percent in 2002, briefly ending the category’s seven-year upward trend.
The author is Internet Editor for Lawn & Landscape Online.