Skiers are enjoying the early winter snows on California's mountains, but down closer to sea level are big worries that the snowfall and its spring runoff won't be enough to relieve two years of drought.
Unless the next few months prove to be wet ones, tougher conservation steps and even water rationing from cities to farms could be ahead for the nation's most populous state.
The impact could be felt across the country in higher food prices, officials warn, if water shortages reduce production in the 400-mile-long Central Valley where much of the nation's fruit is grown in irrigated fields.
"You've got farmers that have to make decisions now about whether to put crops in the ground based on how much water they are going to have," says Susan Sims, chief deputy director of California's Department of Water Resources.
California depends on snow that accumulates in the Sierra Nevada for much of its water needs. The spring thaw that melts the snowpack is relied on to replenish reservoirs that are vital to millions of people.
The region also takes water from the Colorado River, which runs east of California.
Tug of war over water
Last spring was the driest on record and, in June, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger proclaimed the state to be in a drought, speeding transfers of water to areas with the most severe shortages and encouraging conservation efforts.
State hydrologists monitor snow on the Sierra and say that although the snowpack is deeper than this time last year, the depth and water content are 70 percent to 80 percent of average and below what is needed. Although they hope for more snowfall this month and in February, they are alarmed. "If we were to go into a third summer of dry conditions, it would be pretty tough in California and we probably would see some mandatory water rationing," says Don Strickland, spokesman for the state water department. "Nobody really knows at this point."
Water has been the center of epic struggles for longer than California has been a state, producing a system that pumps and pipes vast quantities of water long distances to sustain its population. Today, three-quarters of California's water is produced north of Sacramento, the state capital, and three-quarters is consumed south of there.
The effect of the dry spell has been aggravated by court-ordered restrictions on pumping water out of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for human uses to protect dwindling fish populations. Federal courts ordered limits on water exports in December 2007, and last month, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ordered a continuation of those limits to protect the delta smelt, a small fish listed as a threatened species.
The Department of Water Resources said those moves could permanently reduce by up to 50% water deliveries to cities, farms and businesses.
"We are trapped in a fiscal system that pits my water needs against their water needs," says Tim Quinn of the Association of California Water Agencies, which represents 447 water systems.
Is rationing 'premature'?
Maury Roos, chief hydrologist for the state and veteran of 51 years in state government, cautions that it's too soon to tell whether California will have a problem.
Snow levels are "not too bad," he says, and he points out that the state is only one month into its three wettest months of December, January and February.
"With two-thirds of the rainy season left to go, that might be a little premature" to say rationing will be needed, Roos says.
Environmentalists and advocates for wildlife have sought limits on the water diversions. John Beuttler, conservation director for the California Sportfishing Protection Alliance, says the state's salmon population is near collapse because there is not enough water to support spawning migrations. This likely will be a second year California's salmon fishing season is closed, he says.
"We need water conservation first and foremost by the agriculture community," he says. "We think all users of water in California should treat it as a limited resource."
Some California cities have taken steps to restrict water use.
Most are voluntary, but Long Beach and Los Angeles have imposed mandatory restrictions, including limiting when lawns can be watered. In Los Angeles, 15 water police officers patrol neighborhoods looking for violators who use sprinklers during restricted day hours, when much of the water is lost to evaporation.
Jeffrey Kightlinger, general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, said his agency will decide in March whether to impose limited allocations of water on the region's cities, home to 19 million people.
"By and large, it means rationing. … Right now, it's a 50-50 chance we may have to implement the measures in 2009," Kightlinger says.
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