South Florida Slips Back Into Drought

South Florida has slipped back into a moderate drought, months after a wetter-than-average 2008 rainy season lifted the region out of one of the worst water shortages in its history.

Without much rain expected during the next couple of months, conditions are expected to get worse.

In a normal year, nearly 11 inches of rain should have fallen in eastern Palm Beach County since the start of the dry season in early November, water managers say. Instead, that area has averaged about 2.2 inches - an 80 percent shortfall.

The Treasure Coast is faring better, but rainfall there is still 64 percent below average. Rain gauges in Martin and St. Lucie counties have averaged nearly 3 inches of rain since Nov. 1, a shortfall of 5.4 inches.

All in all, it's the fourth-driest start to the dry season since record-keeping began in 1932, South Florida water managers say.

If that trend continues, expect drought restrictions to ratchet up.

"Right now, the table is starting to be set for problems down the road, but we will have to wait to see if it is a real problem," said Geoff Shaughnessy, a meteorologist at the South Florida Water Management District. "But the potential is there."

Federal meteorologists are forecasting that drier-than-average rainfall conditions may continue at least through mid-April because of the likely continuation of La Niña conditions, which often lead to below-average dry seasons in Florida. But Shaughnessy points out that there's typically more rainfall in the second half of the dry season.

The district restricts water use to two days a week for irrigation of lawns and landscaping. The district is seeking to make those restrictions permanent, matching steps taken by other water management agencies in Florida and the southeastern United States.

The lack of rain also is making South Florida more prone to forest fires - and fire season doesn't officially start until March.

Last week the Keetch-Byram drought index, which helps gauge the wildfire threat, was twice its normal level in Palm Beach County. This week, it's expected to hit the "extreme" fire danger level.

In western and northern Palm Beach County, where the soil is primarily sandy and many homes are built on big lots surrounded by trees, conditions for a fire are ripe.

"It's really getting to be very, very scary and dangerous," said Scott Peterich, a wildlife mitigation specialist with the Florida Division of Forestry.

"If a lawn mower hits a rock and creates a spark, you can get a fire going."

This year the economy could affect the fire season. With so many homes in foreclosure, there are a lot of homes with overgrown grass and unkept yards that aren't being watched.

"These places haven't been taken care of in a year and they are just sitting there," Peterich said. "If something catches on fire and then the house catches on fire, that's a lot of fuel."