West Firmly in Drought’s Grip

PHOENIX – Water woes have always been a way of life in the middle of the desert.

But it has never been quite this bad.

After at least five years of drought, the West is as dry as a bone.

From studying tree rings and fossils, some scientists think the past five years may have been the driest in the West in 1,400 years.

Forecasters don't predict it to get better or wetter anytime soon, either. Some say prehistoric evidence shows this could be the beginning of a drought that could last for two decades.

"I'm more worried than I've ever been," said Sid Wilson, general manager of the Central Arizona Project, a 336-mile system of canals that supplies much of Arizona with water from the Colorado River, the most important source of water for much of the West.

"The problem is, we don't know if this is the fifth year of a five-year drought or the fifth year of a 20-year drought," said Wilson, who has been in the water business since 1967.

Compounding the problems and worry is the region's growth. Between 2000 and 2003, Phoenix and the rest of Maricopa County added more residents than any other place in the country except Los Angeles County, according to Census Bureau figures. Two other Western communities – Riverside County, Calif., north of San Diego, and Clark County, Nev., home to Las Vegas – followed.

All those new homes and golf courses and casinos and parks are putting unprecedented strain on the West's drought-depleted water supplies.

Lake Mead, the primary water source for Las Vegas, is less than 60 percent full. Lake Powell, second in size only to Lake Mead among Colorado River lakes, is only at 40 percent capacity.

The lakes are important for more than just water and recreation. Hydroelectric plants along them are major suppliers of energy to the region. If the lakes get too low, the power plants can't run.

To cope with the drought, some cities in the West are paying residents to remove water-hogging lawns. Other cities are imposing tough watering restrictions and fines of up to $1,000 for violators. Farmers throughout the West are bracing for almost certain cutbacks in water they use for crops.

And that's just the beginning.

"If this drought continues, there will be some serious things that will have to happen," said Bennett Raley, assistant secretary for water issues at the Department of the Interior. The Interior Department has ultimate control over the Colorado River.

During a visit to the region in April, Raley indicated just how serious things could be. Barring a break in the drought, the Interior Department within two or three years likely will declare that the river is in an official shortage for the first time ever.

That would mean the federal government would cut supplies from the river to all seven states that rely on it for water. The potential result? Stringent conservation requirements, deep cuts in water supplies for farmers and ranchers, and higher construction costs.

Raley has asked the seven Colorado River states to submit plans by Tuesday on how they'll work together and address water-use issues and forgo such a declaration. "We're not providing an ultimatum. The drought is providing the ultimatum," he said.

The Interior Department wants states to create regionwide water banks so they can help each other. Of immediate concern is creating a water "bridge" between neighboring states and Nevada, one of the states hit hardest by the drought, Raley said.

To keep their cities growing, meanwhile, many local governments want to reallocate water now used for agriculture for more urban development, something that the Interior Department says might be inevitable.

Ultimately, that could affect everything from the continued migration to the West to the price of vegetables and beef that come from Western farmers and ranchers, who already are changing the way they do business by shifting to different crops, scaling back their acreage and installing water-saving devices.

For example, Frank Martin, who owns a 26-acre farm in Glendale, Ariz., still grows organic lettuce, beets, bok choy, cabbage and cauliflower, but growing water-intensive crops such as sweet corn is a thing of the past.

Gary Nabhan, of the Center for Sustainable Environments at Northern Arizona University, said many farmers and ranchers "are just throwing in the towel and selling out to developers." He estimates that an average of 100 farms in Arizona have been going under every year since the drought began.

The drought is seriously changing life in the West in other ways, too:

• In Las Vegas, water regulators are paying residents $1 per square foot to dig up their lawns
• In New Mexico, the state is hacking down hundreds of acres of thirsty salt cedar trees to improve water flow and has begun spending more than $12.5 million on other water projects. Governor Bill Richardson recently also announced a $10 million fund to try to attract new and innovative ideas to deal with the drought. 
• In california, residents who just lived through one of the worst wildfire seasons in history last year are bracing for another dangerous year. Low snow and water levels in Northern California also are once again threatening the hydroelectric supplies in the most populated state in the country.

In Arizona, watering cutbacks are encouraged but remain voluntary, and the pain hasn't been bad. But that may soon change.

If the Interior Department declares an official shortage on the Colorado River, Arizona would be hardest hit.

Under a pact among Arizona, California and other states that helped get the Central Arizona Project canals built 30 years ago, Arizona could lose more than half its supply of Colorado River water before California loses a drop.

The Colorado River provides about 30 percent of the water used in Phoenix and about half of the water used throughout Central Arizona.

Tom Buschatzke, Phoenix's chief water adviser, said even if supplies from the Colorado are cut, it won't be that big of a deal for the city. By law, farmers upstream from Phoenix would lose their water first. And Upper Colorado River basin states – Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico – would also have to cut their water supplies to supply Arizona and neighboring states.

Even without all that, Phoenix still has enough reserve water underground to last at least a decade even without new supplies, Buschatzke said.

"We know we live in the desert," he said. "But right now we still have more supply than demand in the city of Phoenix."

Others say Phoenix is fooling itself if it thinks water supply isn't a problem that's going to continually worsen. Even if rain and snowfall conditions return to normal beginning tomorrow, it will take 16 years or more before lake levels and the Colorado River are fully replenished, according to some predictions.

"This is just the beginning," said Robert Glennon, a professor of law and public policy at the University of Arizona and author of "Water Follies," which discusses the dangers of overpumping groundwater in the West and elsewhere. "Americans have an infinite capacity to deny reality, and that's what we're doing in the West."

Though the West's water woes are unique, the Interior Department's Raley warns that other fast-growing states should take heed and start planning for shortages, too.

"Inevitably, they're all going to face a shortage, unless this country stops growing," he said. "And I don't think that's going to happen."

Monday, June 14, 2004